The proposed polysilicon industry, excess heat from the industry
“We had no surplus has also said that bad, the letter and the Department of Engineering Science and Technology itself is contradictory.” Since 2006, a project to build business polysiliconVGP-BPS10A,VGP-BPS10A/B,VGP-BPS10B, said, and when it was put into operation a production line just to catch up with products polysilicon down cycle.
Before him was an investment in the rise of the thermal plant polysilicon, when prices are high, the mood of each is thick. “When the children fall in investment, technology, production lines or less some problems, not only purity and no, the waste will be made, no attention to environmental protection.” A spokesman for the industry, said the emotion.
Last year, the views expressed in multiple departments, the data show that the industrial production of silicon solar cells for the whole process of the integrated energy consumption of about 2.2 million kWh / MW. In 2008, the capacity of China’s production of polysilicon 2 million tons, production of 4000 tons or more under construction capacity of producing about 8 million tons, production capacity has been a sizeable surplus.
However, this conclusion has not been approved Science and Technology. Science and Technology said that in 2009, the industry should result in 17,000 tons of polycrystalline silicon photovoltaic cells to produce 3.5GW should consume 35,000 tons of polycrystalline silicon, after domestic production, but imports as 1 million tons.
Diametrically opposite conclusion led to many people in the trade talks, Suntech, and the group of companies led by executives at the Forum have also issued statements that the National Development and Reform Commission statistics because of the ability of planning, false, termination and completion of the reach of the middle class and other factors require a longer process, hence the illusion of excess polysilicon.
“Now, speaking as compared to the demand for polysilicon, the output is not sufficient. However, depending on capacity planning, and is now definitely be more than that. And the future market demand is also rising, so the long term, now says too much too soon. “New Energy Chamber of Commerce, the China Federation of Industry on the implementation of the Secretary-General Wang Hai on the” Securities Daily “told reporters.
Excess polysilicon will reduce business costs
In this regard, another analyst on condition of anonymity said that the surplus is possible and it was not even necessary.
“Excess polysilicon is possible, but VGP-BPL8 , VGP-BPL8A ,VGP-BPL9 to a dialectical view. In this industry, must be kept in excess polysilicon. If the polysilicon is not in surplus, the prices do not fall down, making it difficult to promote in the market. However, the price of photovoltaic electricity production more than one, if costs fell 5 cents, the request will be greatly increased. ”
He stressed that, despite technological innovation is to promote the most important factor in reducing costs, but the excess polysilicon has provided opportunities for downstream industries. “Solar energy downstream, it is a very good time, because now the supply of polysilicon prices are stable, and production continues.” Said the source.
Although prices have fallen to the bottom of the polysilicon, but the project was put on businesses have also become very heavy. “Solar energy is the development of the core business of the company.” At CSG, one person told journalists. They found an annual production of 1,500 tons of polysilicon Yibin articles from October 2009 to start commercial operations, but there is still some time away from full production. As to the place of production time, the source ,said: “activities abroad, usually a year and a half, with its technology and its ability to learn.”
However, analysts believe outside the production line of polysilicon is now a little bit caught in a dilemma of companies, the lower side of the market and existing inputs from the other side was reluctant to ask - depending on the cyclical nature of the industry, future revenues are still expected.
“The price of polysilicon has been around the world dropped to 40-45 dollars per ton, so even able to open a new production, it will not lead to massive price drop. Polysilicon are now entering the bottom a long period of consolidation, the price of 40-45 dollars range should continue for 1 year to 2 years. “analyst predicts.
The largest market in the U.S.
However, prices of polysilicon are stagnant, but in the entire solar industry, rise.
“In the future industry of solar energy will increase in vgp-bps13 , vgp-bps13/s , vgp-bps13a/b vgp-bps13b/b,VGP-BPS10a three years period, while 2010 will be the starting point for years. If the terms of the big cycle, the global solar industry has been basically 5.6 months in 2009, hit rock bottom. The current demand has continued to grow, while supply is basically stable. “said one analyst told reporters.
It is generally believed that this year, after the largest market is the United States. As a stimulus Barack Obama’s energy policy, sunlight is abundant solar energy in California has already established programs, Florida is also willing to invest two billion U.S. dollars to build the first truly advanced city in the world.
“And the next two years will be the largest increase in the United States. The United States, Japan and Italy will ensure that the needs of the growing photovoltaic industry worldwide.” One analyst said, but in China, a new force in the industry continued to be too low.